σ \sigma σ -field and Measurable
We have understood the σ \sigma σ -field in the last chapter, then we could connect the conditional expectation with it.
The conditional expectation E ( X ∣ Y ) E(X|Y) E ( X ∣ Y ) can actually be understood as a r.v. constructed from a collection σ ( Y ) \sigma(Y) σ ( Y ) of subsets of Ω \Omega Ω , which provides us the information about the structure of random variable Y ( ω ) , ω ∈ Ω Y(\omega), \omega \in \Omega Y ( ω ) , ω ∈ Ω . Write E ( X ∣ Y ) = E ( X ∣ σ ( Y ) ) E(X|Y) = E(X|\sigma(Y)) E ( X ∣ Y ) = E ( X ∣ σ ( Y )) .
Then we could define the Borel sets :
Take Ω = R \Omega = \mathbb{R} Ω = R , and
C ( 1 ) = { ( a , b ] : − ∞ < a < b < ∞ } \mathscr{C}^{(1)} =\{(a,b]:-\infty < a < b < \infty \} C ( 1 ) = {( a , b ] : − ∞ < a < b < ∞ } . The σ \sigma σ -field B 1 = σ ( C ( 1 ) ) \mathscr{B}_1 =\sigma(\mathscr{C}^{(1)}) B 1 = σ ( C ( 1 ) )
contains every general subsets of R \mathbb{R} R . It is called the Borel σ \sigma σ -field.
We could understand this by defining the σ \sigma σ -field contains all the information about Y Y Y , so we could use σ \sigma σ -field as the condition.
For example.
E ( X ∣ Y = y i o r y j ) = E ( X ∣ A i ⋃ A j ) = E ( X ∣ Y ≠ y i ) = E ( X ∣ A i c ) } σ − f i e l d ⟹ a l l i n f o r m a t i o n
\left.
\begin{aligned}
&E(X|Y=y_i \ or \ y_j) \\
=& E(X|A_i \bigcup A_j)\\
=&E(X|Y \neq y_i)\\
=&E(X|A_i^c)
\end{aligned}
\right\}
\sigma-field \Longrightarrow all \ information
= = = E ( X ∣ Y = y i or y j ) E ( X ∣ A i ⋃ A j ) E ( X ∣ Y = y i ) E ( X ∣ A i c ) ⎭ ⎬ ⎫ σ − f i e l d ⟹ a ll in f or ma t i o n
We know A i = { ω : F ( ω ) ∈ B } A_i = \{\omega: \mathscr{F}(\omega) \in B \} A i = { ω : F ( ω ) ∈ B } , so A i ∈ σ ( F ) A_i \in \sigma(\mathscr{F}) A i ∈ σ ( F ) .
Note:E ( X ∣ Y ) = E ( X ∣ σ ( Y ) ) E(X|Y) = E(X|\sigma(Y)) E ( X ∣ Y ) = E ( X ∣ σ ( Y )) , because A i ∈ σ ( Y ) A_i \in \sigma(Y) A i ∈ σ ( Y )
F \mathscr{F} F -measurable
The measurable means.
{ ω : ξ ( ω ) ∈ B } ∈ F ( ξ − 1 ∈ F )
\{\omega: \xi(\omega) \in B \} \in \mathscr{F} \quad (\xi^{-1} \in \mathscr{F})
{ ω : ξ ( ω ) ∈ B } ∈ F ( ξ − 1 ∈ F )
For example, we could define X X X .
X = I ω i , ω λ ≥ 3 = { 1 , i f ω i ∈ { 3 , 4 , 5 } 0 , i f ω i ∈ { 1 , 2 }
X = I_{\omega_i,\omega_{\lambda \geq 3 }} =
\begin{cases}
1, if \ \omega_i \in \{3,4,5\}\\
0, if \ \omega_i \in \{1,2\}
\end{cases}
X = I ω i , ω λ ≥ 3 = { 1 , i f ω i ∈ { 3 , 4 , 5 } 0 , i f ω i ∈ { 1 , 2 }
σ ( X ) = { ∅ , { 3 , 4 , 5 } , { 1 , 2 } , Ω } = F 2
\sigma(X) = \{\emptyset , \{3,4,5\},\{1,2\},\Omega \} = \mathscr{F}_2
σ ( X ) = { ∅ , { 3 , 4 , 5 } , { 1 , 2 } , Ω } = F 2
We all know X − F 2 X-\mathscr{F}_2 X − F 2 measurable, so X − σ ( X ) X-\sigma(X) X − σ ( X ) measurable too.
We can see the σ ( X ) \sigma(X) σ ( X ) contains all the information. So E ( X ∣ Y ) = E ( X ∣ σ ( Y ) ) E(X|Y) = E(X|\sigma(Y)) E ( X ∣ Y ) = E ( X ∣ σ ( Y )) .
So here are some rules:
E ( c 1 X 1 + c 2 X 2 ∣ F ) = c 1 E ( X 1 ∣ F ) + c 2 E ( X 2 ∣ ( F ) ) E(c_1X_1+c_2X_2|\mathscr{F})=c_1E(X_1|\mathscr{F})+c_2E(X_2|\mathscr(F)) E ( c 1 X 1 + c 2 X 2 ∣ F ) = c 1 E ( X 1 ∣ F ) + c 2 E ( X 2 ∣ ( F )) ;
E ( E ( X ∣ F ) ) = E ( X ) E(E(X|\mathscr{F})) = E(X) E ( E ( X ∣ F )) = E ( X ) ;
If X X X and the σ \sigma σ -field are independent, then E ( X ∣ F ) = E ( X ) E(X|\mathscr{F})=E(X) E ( X ∣ F ) = E ( X ) ;
If F \mathscr{F} F and G \mathscr{G} G are two σ \sigma σ -field with G ⊂ F \mathscr{G} \subset \mathscr{F} G ⊂ F , then
E ( E ( X ∣ F ) ∣ G ) = E ( X ∣ G )
E(E(X|\mathscr{F})|\mathscr{G}) = E(X|\mathscr{G})
E ( E ( X ∣ F ) ∣ G ) = E ( X ∣ G )
E ( E ( X ∣ G ) ∣ F ) = E ( X ∣ G )
E(E(X|\mathscr{G})|\mathscr{F}) = E(X|\mathscr{G})
E ( E ( X ∣ G ) ∣ F ) = E ( X ∣ G )